Imported Beers Corona And Heineken, Along With Sam Adams, Beating Big Names Like Bud And Coors

U.S. beer sales have slowed sequentially in the month through mid-April as drinkers switched from the most recognizable brands like Budweiser and Coors to imports like Corona and Heineken, and Sam Adams.
In the four weeks to April 13, off-premise beer sales (which make up about 60% of the market) fell 4.2% according to UBS, while total dollar sales slid 1.8%.  The sequential deceleration was accompanied by increased sales for Crown imports, the joint venture between Grupo Modelo and Constellation Brands that distributes Corona, and Boston Beer, maker of the famous Sam Adams brand, and Heineken.
The largest names in the business seem to be losing out to their smaller competitors.  Anheuser-Busch, which owns the Budweiser brand and dominates the convenience store space with 60% of total volume, saw its total sales drop 4.6% as volume fell 6.5% compared to 2012.  MillerCoors (a joint venture between Molson Coors and SABMiller) faced a 3.5% decline in sales on a 4.9% fall in volume.
Part of the declines can be explained in the relative performance of convenience stores to the AOC channel (food, drug stores, mass merchandisers, and Walmart).  Sales in the former slid 2.9%, compared to a 0.6% decline in AOC, while volume dropped 4.2% in convenience stores and only 2.4% in AOC.  “Craft [beers] and imports skew far more heavily toward AOC channels,” UBS analysts explain.
The sequential slowdown appears to be tied to difficult previous year comparables, which suggests growth rates should improve as these comparables ease, UBS’ analysts explained.  Over a 12-month perspective, the industry looks a bit stronger.  Overall, sales grew 3.1% on a 0.3% gain in volume.  Still, the smaller players are clearly outperforming their larger rivals, with Anheuser and Miller seeing sales grow 2.1% and 0.9% respectively, compared to 7.8% for Crown, 6.7% for Boston Beer, and 3.6% for Heineken. (Check out Forbes’ J.J. Colao interview Sam Adams co-founder Jim Koch on their new cans here).
Stock markets tell a slightly different story.  The clear outperformer is Constellation, which surged in mid-February after amending a merger proposition that was blocked by the Department of Justice, which was ultimately accepted; the stock is up more than 33% year-to-date.  Boston Beer, which had a good start to the year, fell dramatically after a big earnings miss in late-April (and the stock is still rated “sell” by UBS), while SABMiller and Molson Coors have outperformed stock markets.  Anheuser has underperformed the broader market, but is still rated “buy” at UBS.