Pumpkin Spice: The Flavor That Rules The Fall

While food insiders insist the now-ubiquitous pumpkin spice trend is over, this favorite fall flavor still has some kick.

In 2013, sales of pumpkin spice-flavored products rose 14% to nearly $350 million in U.S. retail outlets tracked by Nielsen. Pie filling accounted for the majority of sales, while cream and beer (the latter displacing 2012 top seller coffee) followed. This year, Chobani says that the limited batch of pumpkin spice Greek yogurt it put on sale in September was the most successful launch in the company’s history. Sales of pumpkin beers were up 2% vs. 2013 in August and September. According to food industry tracker Mintel, use of pumpkin as an ingredient in beverages alone has grown 130% since 2006, and pumpkin in food on menus has grown ten-fold since 2004.

The roots of the nation’s pumpkin passion are now the stuff of legend: Starbucks Product Manager Peter Dukes and his team devised the widely popular Pumpkin Spice Latte in 2003. Last year, the company reported selling 200 million cups since its launch and the fall favorite was cited as a driver behind the company’s recently reported 10% increase in fourth-quarter sales.

The Starbucks model is considered a lesson in how to transform a cult favorite into mainstream success. When it launched its latte during a 2003 economic lull (good timing for sales of small indulgence items, like lipstick and latte, according to economists), the housing market was robust, fueling Americans’ nesting instincts as the spicy scent is often cited as spurring nostalgic yearnings—real or imagined.  Paired with the latte’s limited edition cache, it started a now widely-used strategy to give an exclusive aura to everything from Thomas’ Cranberry English muffins to California Pizza Kitchen’s Crispy Thin Crust varieties.

And timing is everything, as Nielsen reports that 70% of pumpkin spice sales occur between September and November.  “People now associate this time of year with the limited edition products. They know they won’t be out that long, so they want to get them,” says Andrea Riberi, SVP Consumer Insights at Nielsen. Manufacturers of pumpkin spice products have taken note, as demonstrated by a 2014 survey of 1,014 adults by The Hershey HSY +0.44% Company that found 34% said pumpkin spice was a top flavor associated with fall.

Of course, taste and quality ingredients also are key, as the executives at Chobani are quick to point out that unlike many of the pumpkin offerings on shelves, their yogurt contains the real thing. Yet others contend the seasonal squash isn’t what is tempting consumers. The majority of products available reap their punch from a variety of proprietary flavor blends, as flavorists’ maintainit’s really about the spice and not the squash.  Riberi notes, “In beer, for example, it’s the nutmeg and spices that are driving the sales.”

Current pumpkin spice products are all over the food spectrum, tapping out consumers and prompting some (like HBO’s John Oliver of Last Week Tonight) to say, “Enough!” Yet food bloggers have had a field day testing the offerings, opining on the best and worst of the bunch. You decide which of the following was a hit…or miss.

Oreos get a pumpkin-spice makeover.